Mixed outlook for vacation prices

Airfares

Airline tickets are expected to be more expensive than last year, but they’re unlikely to reach pre-recession highs, said airfare expert Bob Harrell of Harrell Associates.

“Fares were up dramatically in the summer of 2008. I don’t think we’re going to see those levels again unless fuel goes off the charts,” Harrell said.

“But we’ve seen quite a run-up in fares since last summer, since they dropped off at the end of the summer.”

A year-over-year increase of 17 percent is shown in Harrell Associates’ analysis of one-way leisure fares on 280 major routes averaged over a two-week period in March. Last year’s $103 average fare jumped to $121 this year.

Harrell said March is a tricky time to compare fares because the Easter holiday falls at different times each year, but overall he expects 2010 fares to be at least 10 percent higher than in 2009.

Airlines have cut capacity and there is pent-up demand from travelers who sat on the sidelines last year, Harrell said.

“People have been holding back on travel spending, and I think we’re starting to see some of that come back now. And it’s reflected in higher prices.”

Cruises

A very busy wave season — the period from January to March that is traditionally a peak booking time for cruisers — has prompted some cruise lines to announce price hikes.

Carnival Cruise lines implemented price increases of up to five percent this week for sailings in June, July and August, and Norwegian Cruise Line plans to hike prices by up to seven percent beginning April 2.

Carnival’s CEO acknowledged in the price announcement that fares haven’t climbed back to 2008 levels.

The value cruising offers is still “tremendous,” said Oivind Mathisen, editor of the trade publication Cruise Industry News.

“You get a lot of value for your money. Of course the temptation is that you spend more money than you should once you’re on the ship.”