Mixed outlook for vacation prices

There’s good news and bad news for Americans itching for a change of scenery in 2010.

Travelers tripped up by the recession are getting back in the game, and prices reflect their growing appetite in key areas. Still, rising prices for airfares and cruises probably won’t go as high as they were before the economic meltdown, analysts say.

CNN spoke with lodging, air travel, rental car and cruise industry experts to find out what kind of money Americans should expect to spend to vacation in 2010.

Car rentals

Let’s start with the bad news. Rental car rates, which reached historic highs in 2009, are expected to keep climbing, according to Neil Abrams of Abrams Consulting Group, which compiles the Abrams Travel Data Rate Index.

Why were rates so high when the economy was so low? Rental companies can easily sell cars to get their fleets in line with demand. Hotels can’t very well lop off 10 floors of empty rooms, but car companies have that kind of flexibility, Abrams said.

So while demand, at its lowest point, was down by about 25 percent last year, reduced fleets kept the market tight.

“It’s not about how many cars you’ve got, it’s about how many cars you can keep on the road at the optimum price,” Abrams said.

While car rental rates haven’t been as high as they were at this time last year, Abrams expects rates for the year to be 5 percent to 8 percent higher.

“The bottom line is that there ain’t going to be any bargains,” Abrams said.

He suggests booking early to avoid the risk of being shut out or paying a higher rate at the last minute.

Hotels

But if you need a place to rest your head at the end of a long drive, you’re in luck. “According to our forecast, 2010 is really the trough” for average daily hotel rates, said Jan Freitag, vice president of global development for Smith Travel Research.

Rates are expected to be even lower than in 2009, which was “just a bloodbath for rates, from the hotels’ perspective,” said Freitag.

In 2009, hotel rates were down about 8 percent from 2008. This year, STR predicts they’ll drop by about 3 percent. The average daily rate of $97.50 last year is expected to drop to $94.40. In 2008, the average daily rate was $107.

Some markets are better deals than others. A lot of supply growth in Phoenix, Arizona, and Houston, Texas, has yielded very good hotel deals, Freitag said. Amsterdam is a good value and cities in countries with economic woes — including Portugal, Italy, Spain and Greece — have had some rate declines.

New York, on the other hand, has bounced back. “Everybody thought that New York with the financial center would be lagging, but it’s going to be hard to find a deal in New York,” Freitag said.

Rates are likely to creep up toward the end of the year, so travel early and often, Freitag advises consumers.